Publications

# denotes project members.

2025

[41] Dong, C., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Gualandi, A., Lucarini, V., Mengaldo, G. Spatio-temporal Dynamical Indices for Complex Systems. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117248

OA from publisher: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077925012615#d1e1318
Repository accepted manuscript:

[40] Keel, T., Brierley, C., Messori, G., White, R.H. (2025). Representing the teleconnection between the jet stream and extreme cold air outbreaks over North America. Geophys. Res. Lett, doi: 10.1029/2025GL116984

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL116984
Repository accepted manuscript: 

[39] Holmberg, E., Quijal, M., Ballester, J.* Messori, G.* (equal contribution) (2025) Skillful heat-related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2426516122

OA from publisher: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2426516122
Repository accepted manuscript:

[38] Stergiou, P., Segalini, A., Messori, G. (2025) Concurrent wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07856-9

OA from publisher: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-025-07856-9
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[37] Reiter, A.K., Messori, G., Faranda, D., Larsen, M.A.D., Drews, M. (2025) Robustness of Dynamical Coupling between wintertime European Weather Extremes and the Large-Scale Circulation. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-025-07846-x.

OA from publisher: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-025-07846-x
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[36] Lopez-Marti, F., Wu, L. Messori, G., Rutgersson, A. (2025). Moisture Sources throughout the Life-cycle of an Atmospheric River: Storm Dennis Case Study. J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2024JD042876.

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD042876
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[35] #Flynn, C.M., Mömken, J., Pinto, J.G., #Schutte, M., Messori, G (2025). CLIMK–WINDS: A New Database of Extreme European Winter Windstorms. Earth Sys. Sci. Data., doi: 10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025

OA from publisher: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/4431/2025/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[34] Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Thiery, W. (2025) Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change. Earth’s Future, doi: 10.1029/2025EF006325

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF006325
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[33] Platzer, P., Chapron, B., Messori, G. (2025). Disentangling Density and Geometry in Weather Regime Dimensions using Stochastic Twins. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w

OA from publisher: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01086-w
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[32] #Riboldi, J., Dorrington, J., #Krouma, M., #Leeding, R., Messori, G. (2025) Explaining pan-Atlantic cold and windy extremes using an analog-based approach. J. Geophys. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2024JD041513

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041513
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[31] #Schutte, M., Portal, A., Lee, S. H., Messori, G. (2025) Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025

OA from publisher: https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/521/2025/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[30] Lopez-Marti, F., Ginesta, M., Faranda, D., Rutgersson, A., Yiou, P., Wu, L., Messori, G. (2025) Future changes of compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-16-169-2025

OA from publisher: https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/169/2025/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

2024

[29] Holmberg, E., Tietsche, S., Messori, G.(2024) Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes. Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.4885

OA from publisher: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4885
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[28] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G. (2024) Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024

OA from publisher: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/7915/2024/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[27] Faranda, D.*, Messori, G.* (equal contribution), Alberti, T., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Caby, T., Cavicchia, L., Coppola, E., Donner, R., Dubrulle, B., Galfi, V. M., Holmberg, E., Lembo, V., Noyelle, R., Spagnolo, B., Vaienti, S., Valenti, D., Yiou, P., Wormell, C. (2024) Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events. Phys. Rev. E, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001

Version from publisher: https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[26] Messori, G., Segalini, A., Ramos, A. M. (2024) Climatology and trends in concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024

OA from publisher: https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1207/2024/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[25] Segalini, A., #Riboldi, J., Wirth, V., Messori, G. (2024) A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024

OA from publisher: https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/959/2024/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[24] Muheki, D., Deijns A.A.J., Bevacqua, E., Messori, G., Zscheischler, J., Thiery, W. (2024) The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa. Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-15-429-2024

OA from publisher: https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/429/2024/Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[23] Mömken, J., Messori, G., Pinto, J.G. (2024) Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets. Wea. Clim. Extr., doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

OA from publisher: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000227?dgcid=rss_sd_all
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[22] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G. (2024) Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting. Geosci. Mod. Dev., doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024

OA from publisher: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2347/2024/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[21] Pons, F.M.E, Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., Messori, G. (2024) Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling. Wea. Clim. Extr., doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

OA from publisher: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000124?via%3Dihub
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[20] Lee, S., Messori, G. (2024) The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2023GL107161

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL107161
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[19] #Olivetti, L., Messori, G., Shaobo, J. (2024) A Quantile Generalized Additive Approach for Compound Climate Extremes: Pan-Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study. J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., doi: 10.1029/2023MS003753

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023MS003753
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[18] Scher, S., Messori, G. (2024) Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems . Artif. Intell. Earth Systems, doi: 10.1175/AIES-D-23-0046.1

OA from publisher: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/aies/3/1/AIES-D-23-0046.1.xml
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

2023

[17] Messori, G., Dorrington, J. (2023) A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro-Atlantic Weather Regimes. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2023GL104696

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL104696
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[16] Pons, F.M.E, Messori, G., Faranda, D. (2023) Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems. Chaos, doi: 10.1063/5.0152370

Version from publisher: https://pubs.aip.org/aip/cha/article/33/7/073143/2903087/Statistical-performance-of-local-attractor
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[15] Kornhuber, K.*, Messori, G.* (Equal contribution). (2023) Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0295.1.

OA from publisher: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/104/9/BAMS-D-21-0295.1.xml
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[14] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., Messori, G. (2023) Modulation of North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones and Extreme Weather in Europe during North American Cold Spells. Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100629.

OA from publisher: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000828
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[13] Messori, G., Dorrington, J. (2023) A joint perspective on North American and Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2023GL104696

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL104696
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[12] #Riboldi, J., #Leeding, R., Segalini, A., Messori, G. (2023) Multiple large-scale dynamical pathways for pan-Atlantic compound cold and windy extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2022GL102528

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102528
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[11] Messori, G. and Faranda, D. (2023) On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2022GL101008.

OA from publisher: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101008
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[10] Lucarini, V., Galfi, M., #Riboldi, J.,#Messori, G. (2023) Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave, Env. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

OA from publisher: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acab77
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[9] Galfi, M., #Messori, G. (2023) Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe, Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf

OA from publisher: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acaedf
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[8] Faranda, D., #Messori, G., Jézéquel, A., Vrac, M., Yiou, P. (2023) Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

OA from publisher: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2214525120
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[7] #Leeding, R., #Riboldi, J., #Messori, G. (2023) On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes, Wea. Clim. Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100524

2022

[5] Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., Yiou, P., #Messori, G. (2022) A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

OA from publisher: https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1311/2022/wcd-3-1311-2022.html
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[4] Hochman, A., Marra, F., #Messori, G., Pinto, J.G., Raveh-Rubin, S., Yosef, Y., Zittis, G. (2022) Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean, Earth Sys. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/esd-13-749-2022

OA from publisher: https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/749/2022/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[3] #Messori, G., Kretschmer, M., Lee, S. and Matthias, V. (2022). Stratospheric Downward Wave Reflection Events Modulate North American Weather Regimes and Cold Spells. Wea. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022.

OA from publisher: https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/1215/2022/
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

[2] Jewson, S., Scher, S., #Messori, G. (2022). Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts. Wea. For., doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0086.1.

Version from publisher: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/37/1/WAF-D-21-0086.1.xml
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal

2021

[1] Hochman, A., #Messori, G., Quinting, J. F., Pinto, J. G., & Grams, C. M. (2021). Do Atlantic-European weather regimes physically exist? Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2021GL095574.

OA from publisher: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095574
Repository accepted manuscript: Uppsala University DiVA Portal